Outlook with Bill Webb Bill Webb Feed Solutions

It’s been a stormy month in August, both from a weather and an economic perspective.

Everyone will be well aware of the weather and the damage it’s caused but to put it into perspective here are some numbers from our yard at Paengaroa and the farm at Ohauiti.

In the yard we had 47mm for the month, up until August 19, compared with 21mm last year. We had 272mm fall during July, compared with 123mm for July last year and for the year to date we have had 1115mm.

Up at the farm, it’s been even wetter with 102mm falling in August, up to the 19^th, compared with just 23mm for the same period last year. The farm had 570mm in July, compared with 150mm in July last year and 1814mm has fallen in the year to August 19.

When you are getting up every day and putting your waterproof leggings on, you know it’s wet.

Those expecting more grass to grow as a result of the rain will be disappointed though as the rain has kept the soil temperature and the growth in check. The low nitrogen levels from all the rain is also contributing to slow growth rates with the tip of ryegrass dying back being a good indicator.

We know what comes after a long wet spell is usually a long dry spell with a 3^rd La Nina event in a row forecast. It is likely we will have another dry summer so prepare early and get your orders in for feed now.

We are still getting calls for feed and we are doing what we can.

There are still issues with transport, including the interisland ferries which are both incapable of keeping up with the nation’s freight demands.

Freight in general is just hard work because of Covid-19 and a lack of workers.

It’s not just challenging for us, the meat exporters are estimated to have lost $100 million in earnings as a result of a shortage of labour. They are short by about 2500 workers.

They have been unable to do the fine cuts, the premier cuts, so the loss is about $60 per animal to the farmer.

They expect another shortage of staff from November through till June next year so don’t expect it to change any time soon.

There is a bit of a shortage of stock with animals killed in the dry spell and we don’t have a grass market as yet. So there could be good payments for young stock this year.

Normally we would not be getting good money for store stock but we are now.

Crunching the numbers

I’ve done the costings on grass and maize for the coming season and farm inflation is well above the national average of 7.3 per cent.

The cost of producing a kilogramme of grass is up by at least four cents per kg of dry matter compared with last year. It’s now costing around 20 cents/kgdm to grow to the grazing stage. That’s about a 17 per cent increase on last year and that’s just the cost increase, there is no extra margin on there.

There has just been such a huge increase in chemicals and fertiliser costs, hence the reason farmers are feeling the pinch.

Harvesting costs are also going to be up 10-18 per cent and maize is going to be similar so there is going to be at least a 6-7 cent per kgdm increase in delivered maize at this stage, as long as the price of inputs and fuel doesn’t increase any more.

We can only hope the schedule and the dairy pay-out hold up.

Venison prices are a positive at the moment with 60kg North Island stags selling for $8.15/kg in mid-August, compared with $5.90 a year earlier.

North Island 300kg steers are also up to $6.40, compared with a $6.10 last year.

So, the markets are up but boy do we need it with around 17 per cent increase in costs.

Supplements are cheapest straight out of the paddock delivered to your farm, so order now to make this happen. We still have some bulk grass silage available - with harvest starting mid-September - and are taking orders now for maize silage as well. Like I have always said ‘Proper planning prevents pitiful performance’.