Fert Options with Robin Boom Agronomic Advisory Services

Food production worldwide has grown by and large on a par with the increase in human population due to implementation of modern agricultural practices, some of which have been environmentally destructive, and there is more and more pressure for farmers and growers to work their land more sustainably.

For the last 50 years New Zealand primary food production has been a kind of laissez faire industry, which has evolved to survive in the international marketplace unassisted by any government subsidies, competing in marketplaces where local tariffs disadvantage our products. The world has been awash with cheap food produced by large-scale factory farms, often heavily subsidised, as governments are loathed to see their citizens going hungry because food was too expensive for their citizens to buy.

Increased public pressure

There is increased public pressure for food to be produced sustainably with minimal environmental impact on waterways and with lower greenhouse gas emissions. With the world human population expected to be approaching 10 billion by 2050, being able to feed everybody while reducing environmental degradation is going to be problematic. If what climate change doomsayers are predicting is right, and the world gets two or three degrees warmer than now, sea levels rise significantly and there are sustained continental and intercontinental droughts, causing food and crop production, providing nutritious food for everybody could become severely challenging. Freshwater will be an ever-diminishing commodity, and many of the river deltas around the globe currently used for crop production such as the Mekong River delta in China and Ganges River delta in India/Bangladesh, where much of the world’s rice production occurs, will be salted by rising tidal surges, causing salinity issues. Irrigation water in some countries currently relying on it will either dry up or become too saline for crops to grow. The result will be desertification of agricultural land on a grand scale.

Maritime climate

Because of our maritime climate, NZ will be somewhat immune to prolonged droughts. Although with warmer temperatures, subtropical crop production will become more common in certain areas and we may see fruit such as pineapples, bananas and crops such as sugar cane being grown. New Zealand should be part of the solution for feeding a hungry world, but with the barrage of environmental compliance rules encroaching upon us, the potential for producing food is in danger of being hampered. For instance, if we consider irrigation, currently more than 98 per cent of our freshwater from rainfall and snow melt, going into our lakes and rivers, and eventually flow into the ocean. We are blessed with abundant amounts of water coming off our mountains and hills, which if it can be stored will help futureproof food production in dry periods. Proposed irrigation schemes however are becoming more difficult to get over the line as government and regional councils acquiesce to pressure from environmentalists with concerns about nutrient enrichment of waterways and groundwater, particularly from nitrogen.

Nitrogen caps

Nitrogen caps in various regions based on Nitrogen Reference Points produced by the Overseer model could limit further intensification and dairy farmers and vegetable growers in particular could be forced to accept lower yields as a consequence of reduced fertiliser inputs. And expanding into environmentally-sensitive catchments, even when the climate and soils are suitable for intensive horticulture, will become difficult. If new irrigation schemes were given a green light, pressure will be on for the land to be used for crops or livestock with the lowest environmental footprint, or to embrace what some call regenerative farming or restorative farming techniques. Fruit tree and vine crops with drip-fed irrigation are likely to become more common as their environmental footprint is lower than vegetable growing and intensive livestock operations.

One thing that seems certain is that there are going to be big changes in the way land is managed here in NZ; and with increased regulation, costs of production are likely to go up.

While the public is baying for greater environmental compliance, less food production will increase demand, and hopefully farmers and growers will receive a fairer price from what consumers are prepared to pay. How all of these dynamics will play out in the next 30 years will be interesting, as the way to increase food production to feed an extra three billion people on our planet is not to hamstring the productive capacity of good soils with burdensome regulatory compliance in my opinion.

Robin Boom, CPAg, member of the Institute of Professional Soil Scientists.