The link between the November Kaikoura earthquake and feed prices for North Island farmers might not be immediately obvious – but there is one, and it could prove costly.

The ongoing harsh dry conditions throughout the country, not to mention the February fires in Hawke’s Bay, have accentuated what was already shaping up to be a shortage of supplementary feed, which could mean some farmers will have to rely on feed from the South Island.

Despite the ongoing drought in some parts of Canterbury, other areas in the region have enjoyed a good growing season so there is some surplus feed that may end up helping North Island farmer out – at a cost.

Thanks to the earthquake’s devastating impact on the roading network, an extra 150km to 160km has been added to the trucking route, which in turn means delivering the feed costs more.

The summer in the Bay of Plenty and Waikato has again defied the forecasters. Unusually, we’ve had almost constant equinox-type sou’westerly winds, right through the February. Together with temperatures up to 27 degrees Celsius, those winds have dried up the 22ml of rain in for January. In fact the 2016-2017 summer has been more like the ‘drought-which-never-happened’ forecast for the previous summer.

Maize silage

Thanks to the fact that last summer was quite mild, we had some silage leftover but demand for it and new season’s supplements is growing. Already many farmers are on once-a-day or 16-hour milking, and focus must be on keeping cows well feed but at the same time not overgrazing pastures; easier said than done.

As always in farming – it’s about thinking and planning ahead – not just for the here and now – overgrazing pasture diminishes them and allows the weeds to come away. But livestock must also be allowed to clean up the pasture so that when it rains there isn’t the dry residue to host facial eczema spores.

Now is also the time for pasture renovation, especially in the naturally wetter areas of the farm. Get the grass seed in now – it’s better in the ground than in the bag in the shed being nibbled on by mice. The earlier pasture is established, the greater the benefits; as the later its sown, the later it will get away and the less likely it will be able to grazed in autumn and maybe not until spring.

Barley straw

Barley straw is already in short supply. Less was grown because of reduced demand, thanks to the low dairy payout. And drought in the Hawke’s Bay means barley crops there haven’t grown as well, so anyone wanting barley straw this season may be in for an unpleasant surprise.

At this point in the season, farmers have options going forward but it’s not the time to procrastinate. Feed budgets must be done in order to be prepared for winter. This includes closely inspecting maize, and winter crops to assess the yields.

Because of the unusual weather crops may not produce as much as expected. Crops could be two to four tonne of dry matter down which, for a 10ha block, could equate to a shortage of 20 tonne to 40 tonne of dry matter or 100 to 200 big bales of hay – this is the deficit farmers could be looking to make up.

Ordering supplements for the winter is vital to be sure of supply because now it is at its cheapest straight off the paddock to the farmer, as is arranging winter grazing. Leaving it too late to contact grazers could mean having to truck animals farther from home – adding even more costs.

Timely manner

Our aim is to help farmers out with the supplements they need but because many farmers wouldn’t commit to ordering in advance – we, and most other contractors, haven’t planted as much maize as in past years. We still have some available but not much.

However, our maize crops are not looking too bad, but because of the cold wet spring we had to put in some shorter maturing varieties to get them off in a timely matter and they are struggling a bit with the dry conditions.

Maize growing on sandy ridges is also showing some signs of moisture stress but those on heavier clay soils are holding their own.

The news for sheep farmers isn’t good with depressed prices for wool and meat – but for dairy farmers, the recent auction prices have been going the right way – which has mostly been up – let’s hope that continues.